Nifty and Time Cycle
Because of the sheer excitement by knowing the amount of profit one can make, by trading in the markets or investing in the markets, by getting those levels and making their trades accordingly in either directions.
But the second aspect of Technical Analysis, i.e., the “TIME CYCLE” is usually ignored by majority of the market people. Though some importance is surely given but the right amount of attention is not paid towards that aspect, which is equally critical for the market players.
And because of that negligence, intentionally or accidently, most of the time individuals fail to encash the opportunity that knocks on their doors and at the end are left high and dry.
Let us now start with the calculations that will help us decide on the timings of the next phase of market moves and major new high.
Sometime ago in April 2005 the indices did hit the high levels of previous Bull Run and crossed the same with all technical parameters and confirmations in place. Those were the highest levels on the indices, higher than the previous Bull markets.
Before that period, September 2004 was the period, when indices touched the previous bull markets highs. So we consider that period, i.e., September 2004, as the base for further calculations of the time cycle and will try to time the markets and period for the next new high.
From September 2004 to April 2005, time taken was eight (8) months. So the next highest point after a good up move from the current one should come after a gap of thirteen (13) months from the last confirmed period. So in this case last confirmed period was April 2005 and a period of thirteen months from April 2005 comes in May 2006.
Hence the next highest point on the indices was achieved in May 2006 which was followed by a sharp fall in the indices.
Next leg of time cycle starts from May 2006. This period should be of twenty one (21) months from the last high point that was hit in May 2006. So the calculation gives us the period of January 2008 when markets should reach the possible next major top.
And not surprisingly, we all witnessed a top in January 2008 followed by a massive correction.
THE NEW ORBIT
Correction followed after January 2008 Top was of such intensity that everybody forgot all technical levels and basic rules. But we shall continue with the procedure of finding out the next leg of time cycle by ignoring whatever the intensity of previous fall was.
From January 2008, next period of top formation, after an up move, should come in thirty four (34) months and we were stunningly surprised when we calculated that figure, we arrived at what – November 2010. The top formed in January 2008 was 6357 and in November 2010 markets moved the indices to the levels of 6336, which was almost the same top of January 2008.
The next leg of time cycle calculation starts from the eligible point of period, i.e., November 2010. And the period should come in Fifty five (55) months time from the eligible period of November 2010. So the calculated time comes as May 2015.
Hence the markets should form the “NEXT MAJOR TOP” on the indices in May 2015 after some good up moves followed by some minor corrections well before that period. And in those up moves before 2015 markets will definitely cross the previous highs on the indices.
As one should not accept this single theorem as the base for arriving at the conclusion, so we will try to confirm this theorem from some other possible angles as well. This second angle is a combination of time cycle as well as a little bit of logical math’s.
Top of January 2008, was followed by bottom in the markets after nine (9) months from the top, in September 2008. From the bottoms of September 2008 markets started picking up and the momentum continued till the top formation in November 2010, certainly with some two way moves in between that period. So the time taken was twenty seven (27) months from the bottom of September 2008 to reach the top in November 2010.
Time taken to reach the top was thrice the time taken to hit the bottoms.
After touching the top in November 2010, markets again switched on the bearish mode and started it’s down move which lasted till the markets hit the bottom in December 2011 and the time taken was thirteen (13) months.
So by following the simple logic with math’s, i.e., time taken to reach the top should be thrice the time taken to hit the bottoms, the next major top should be after thirty nine (39) months from the bottom of December 2011 and that should be February 2015.
May 31, So with this second angle as well, we are somewhere close to the first conclusion. I believe that a lot of intellectuals will not agree with my way of reasoning and research. So I will try to convince with one more possible angle. And this is the “theory of leap years” along the line of history of the Indian markets, that too with my way of reasoning.
Year 2000 was a leap year and the end of previous century, so I take year 2000 as base for my further research and reasoning. Markets were in Bull Run and made the top on indices in year 2000. Now from here on let us start counting the leap years in the front as well as in the reverse direction simultaneously.
Year 2004 was a leap year and year 1996 was a leap year and markets made new highs in both those leap years.
Year 2008 was a leap year and year 1992 was a leap year and markets made new highs in both these leap years as well.
Year 2012 was a leap year and year 1988 was a leap year and markets could not make new highs in those leap years.
Year 2012 and 1988 witnessed range bound markets throughout the year.
Year 1985 witnessed new highs in the markets and that was one year in advance (leap year was 1984).
So logic and data suggests that next new high should be one year in advance from the next leap year 2016 and that comes as 2015.
With the help of all the facts and figures discussed above, we can arrive at the decision that next “NEW MAJOR HIGH” for the markets from where markets will “TOP OUT” will be seen definitely in 2015 and the time could be, in between, from January 2015 to May 2015.
Of course, there will be some good moves in both the directions before reaching the destination.
Our Astrological Research report which we circulated in July 2011 (Saturn and Equity Markets) also coincides with the same conclusion which we arrived at hereby using technical research with some tint of logic and math’s.
Note: while all precautions have been taken for the accuracy of the complex calculations, writer of this document makes no warranties, either expressed or implied.
By: Astrologer Rajkishore